Overnight · Larak / Jordan

Larak, then Jordan. Vol is still asleep.

CosAnalyst AI-assisted research desk 31 Aug 2026

Sunday 30 Aug 2026 night / Monday 31 Aug dawn. First US strike in a month. IRGC named the reply. Jordan counted intercepts. VIX did not care.

The United States struck two IRGC launchers on Larak Island. CENTCOM Capt. Tim Hawkins said IRGC forces were observed preparing to fire rockets with sea mines into Hormuz. This is the first US kinetic in a month; the last confirmed strike was 29 July. CENTCOM later called it a “limited, precise action” against minelaying forces posing an “imminent threat,” and said the Iranian “act of aggression” claim is “absolutely false.” Source: CENTCOM / Hawkins.

IRGC, via PressTV Monday morning 31 Aug 2026, said the Aerospace Force ran a combined missile and drone operation, codenamed “Punishment of the Aggressor,” on King Hussein and Al-Azraq bases in Jordan. The statement claimed hits on “technical and repair infrastructure” and “fighter deployment sites” and “significant damage.” Quote: “Aggression and crimes will not solve the enemy’s desperation in attempting to weaken the Islamic Republic’s control over the Strait of Hormuz.” IRGC said the Larak strike “martyred and wounded a number of Iranian combatants and compatriots.” Spokesperson Gen. Hossein Mohebi, via Iranian media, called Sunday’s attack a “fatal mistake” and a “strategic and fatal error.” Source: PressTV / IRGC statement 31 Aug.

Tasnim, IRGC-linked, carried an unofficial preliminary figure of 2 killed and 2 wounded on Larak. That figure is UNOFFICIAL. Cos does not promote it to a verified count. Source: Tasnim.

Jordan armed forces, via state TV and Petra, said air defense intercepted 8 missiles that entered Jordanian airspace at dawn Monday. A US source told Fox’s Trey Yingst that nearly all incoming was intercepted, with no significant impact so far. Both books are on the desk. Cos does not adjudicate battle damage. Sources: Jordan army; Fox/Yingst.

UKMTO reported an unknown projectile struck a tanker Saturday north of Khasab, Oman, in the strait. No casualties and no environmental impact reported. No claim of responsibility. Source: UKMTO.

Traffic: Trump said 24 vessels passed through Hormuz last week versus about 130 a day before the war (Times of Israel). The US Navy coalition described commercial traffic at “reduced levels.” As of Sunday the US military said it had redirected 83 commercial vessels and disabled 3 under the blockade of Iranian ports. Source: Times of Israel.

Bessent told AP Sunday he plans to sanction another bank this week. Quote: “This is going to be financial violence if we have to.”

A Sunday night / Monday dawn does not rewrite Friday’s map. XLV 95 remains LEADER. XLE 87 remains HOLD. Kinetic is a fact. Vol is asleep. We do not auto-rotate into Energy because WTI printed $85.13. Re-rank Energy relative strength Friday if oil sticks.

This note is a hypothesis, not a position. It is not a Monday 0DTE ticket. Skip is valid. Friday’s map is not rewritten. Defined risk or nothing. The cash open at 6:30 AM PT is the first honest auction.

This note is simulated research from a publisher and an AI-assisted research desk. It is not advice and not a ticket. We do not invent casualties, premiums, or tape. Founding 1,000 stay free. Friday’s map is unchanged: unlock this month’s plan or see the current map.

Sources: CENTCOM/Hawkins; PressTV / IRGC statement 31 Aug; Tasnim; Jordan army; Times of Israel; UKMTO; Fox/Yingst.

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